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First Precipitation of the Season Could Come Next Week
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05 January 2018   Dr. Curtis James

It’s been dry.  Really dry. 

Forecast Discussion:

La Niña conditions have brought warmer and dryer-than-normal conditions to the Southwest thus far, but the first precipitation event of the 2017-18 cold season is on tap for next week (finally).

A weak trough of low pressure will develop along the West Coast Monday – Tuesday, directing a deep layer of moist, south-southwesterly flow across the state. This will bring increasing cloudiness Monday – Tuesday, with increasing breezes and a slight chance of rain showers Monday night – Tuesday. Then, a larger cut-off low will develop and move across the state Tuesday night - Wednesday. While the positioning of cutoff lows is often poorly forecasted by numerical weather prediction models, the forecasts have consistently been predicting its path to be from west to east across northern Arizona. If this forecast pans out, we could see windy conditions and a good chance of rain showers Tuesday evening, possibly changing to wet, slushy snow in portions of the Prescott area by Wednesday morning with the passage of the cold front. Snow levels are currently predicted to drop to around 5,400’ on Wednesday.  

Updates from the NWS will be forwarded early next week, as there is still considerable uncertainty in the forecasts at this time.

C. James


Met Mail is an unofficial weather discussion and forecast transmitted once or twice a week via e-mail by the Embry-Riddle Department of Meteorology (http://meteo.pr.erau.edu/). Embry-Riddle offers an undergraduate bachelor-of-science degree program in Applied Meteorology. Please spread the word to all potential qualified candidates!

Further Information:

ERAU Applied Meteorology degree program

Official National Weather Service forecast

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